Trump’s Presidency and How It Will Change the World
It was unthinkable and unexpected until it happened! Today, January 20, President-elect Donald J. Trump, will repeat 35 words of an oath of office and take over as President of the United States of America. The impact of his presidency is set to re-define and revamp contemporary international relations in the U.S and the rest of the World. The Trump Administration will turn tables on in relations with friends and foes of the US. As new brooms sweeper cleanest, the new administration is destined to redefine the role of the US world politics and usher in a new international order marked a departure from the footprint of traditional US rhetoric and foreign policy behaviour.
President-elect Trump enters the White House with neither political nor US military background. He is a product of pragmatism and realism. He rode on the decay of President Obama’s outdated foreign policy objectives which alienated young Americans against the Clinton legacy. The US election result that pitted Mrs Clinton was a protest vote by young Americans and the Middle Class who were yearning for change after decades of static US foreign policy. The US establishment, nevertheless, was more glaringly sympathetic to Mrs Hillary Clinton. Mr Trump political pronouncements indicate his belief in the creation of a new world order based on business and national interest of the US. He has promised Americans more jobs and tax cuts. The President-elect’s inauguration speech is likely to dwell on uniting a divided America. He will bring word of unity and forgiveness and promise prosperity for the USA.
The President-elect has made history by appointing a team which many view as the great Cabinet ever put together but not without controversy. A few of the appointments include the following: Rex Tillerson (Secretary of State), Rick Perry (Secretary of Energy), Ryan Zinke (Secretary of Interior), James Mattis (Secretary of Defense), Steven Mnuchin (Secretary of Treasury), Jeff Sessions (Attorney General), Ben Carson (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development), Wilbur Ross (Secretary of Commerce), Tom Price (Secretary of Health and Human Service), Betsy DeVos (Secretary of Education), Elaine Chao (Secretary of Transport), Nikki Haley (U.S Ambassador to United Nations), Andrew Puzder (Secretary of Labour) and John Kelly (Secretary of Homeland Security).
Though Mr Trump has harboured criticism of NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), he is unlikely to undermine support for NATO which has been a foreign policy cornerstone of many US Administrations both Democratic and Republican for more than 60 years. He has attacked the organization as obsolete and characterized its members as ungrateful allies who benefit from US generosity and US would withdraw its forces until they pay up. This was a diplomatic threat meant to raise alarm to East European countries that see the alliance as a bulwark against Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised the incoming US president and it seems that the feeling is mutual. As for the Russian Federation itself, Mr Trump has said he believes he can ease tensions with President Vladimir Putin, and has praised him as a strong leader for Russia with whom he would love to have a good relationship. Trump is commending Putin for having the interests of Russia at heart and not for outsmarting the United States of America. The alleged Russian Federation election hackings are going to be a watershed of Trump’s presidency but not an impediment to the improvement thereof. Even friends spy on each other!
As regards Mr Trump’s relationship with the intelligence it is increasingly going to be evident that Mr Trump revere the CIA and believes in its crucial and critical role of making the USA safe. His point during the campaign and before inauguration was to shake the CIA and straighten it up for his administration to ensure that he won’t be misguided by falsehoods and doubts raised by scandals that rocked previous administrations such as the ‘smoking gun’ issue in Iraq which resulted in the US toppling Saddam Hussein on the false premises that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. The allegations were proved false. Both British and US intelligence lied in the process, thus leaving a big dent in the CIA and Scotland Yard’s credibility.
In cases such as the Snowden case, there is no doubt Mr Trump is skeptical about the issue and that in his heart he does not seem to trust Mr Vladimir Putin. Trump does not seem to subscribe to the US which is a ‘policeman of the world’. He does not seem to understand why previous American administrations including the Obama one destroyed the Arab political fabric and left a vacuum that has in turn created instability in the Middle East that has given rise to the formation of elements such as the ISIS and other terrorist groups who are taking advantage of resultant instability in the Arab world. The President-elect has questioned the role of intelligence in the false report of the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, a lie which was then used to justify regime change in Iraq and the murder of Saddam Hussein by allied forces. The invasion of Iraq by the US and its allies was not sanctioned by the UN Security Council. Mr Trump also questions dishing of tracts of foreign currency to Iran given in cash by the Obama Administration. The new President is certainly intensifying US fight against terrorism and organized crime in the world.
From his pronouncements on the Russian Federation, it would appear that the President-elect considers the Russian Federation as a US ally in fighting ISIS and global terrorism. The Russian Federation and the United States, according to Mr Trump should lead in the battle against terrorism for the historic milestone to benefit all.
In the UK, Mr Trump sees a critical ally of the US. He is likely to visit the UK ahead of all other European countries. He was quick to congratulate the UK over its decision to break away from the EU.
The Islamic Republic of Iran will have to be more programmatic in its nuclear deal with both Europe and the United States. It is not foreseen that the Trump Administration will have patience with Iran. As for Israel and Palestine, one envisages dramatic changes in the negotiation strategy of the US. While over protecting Israel, Mr Trump is set to use secret diplomacy to compel Israel to give up something in the process. The Palestinian Question has dominated International Relations and International Dialogue for decades and Mr Trump seem set to bring in a new era in this, one of the oldest UN made conflict.
A Donald Trump presidency has, however, raised major security concerns in Asia. China is largely questioning Mr Trump’s preliminary statements on the ‘one China Policy’ which previous US Administrations including the Obama Administration religiously pursued. Skeptics of Mr Trump especially in the Democratic camp view the President-elect as rocking the boat in relations with China. It is, however, doubtful that Mr Trump will ditch China. He is likely to prove his critics wrong. Given a chance, Mr Trump seems set to create a new vibrant relationship with the People’s Republic of China based on mutual benefit and economic interests of both the US and People’s Republic of China.
The regulation of the DPRK nuclear question through the Six Party Talks programme will certainly require closer intercession between the US and the People’s Republic of China. Mr Trump faces the challenge of curbing the DPRK nuclear ambitions, something that has eluded successive US leaders. The President-elect has expressed his willingness to directly negotiate with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Africa will not be spared by Trumpuism. Brexit was brought to the UK by the young voters losing trust on old rhetoric and outdated priorities. For Africa, Trumpuism is set to influence the young Africans to think they can turn the tables on and influence transformation of political and economic fortunes in their countries thus become driving motors for change in socio-economic and political aspects of their respective countries. Mr Trump is set to be less tolerant and disinterested in issues around the domestic politics of African countries as he seeks to ‘Make America Great Again,’ unless, as he was very clear in his acceptance speech, they strongly impinge on American national interests. Trump’s presidency is set usher ‘the fall of the American empire and the rise of the American Republic’. His foreign policy seems to be more inward looking than outward looking. He wants to give something to the American citizen and minimize international adventures. Africa needs to watch Mr Trump carefully as he could be unpredictable in his actions to those African leaders refusing to accept the result of elections, for example, in Gambia.
As regards the UN, Mr Trump is set to respect its role and function in international relations. In particular, Mr Trump will concentrate on the UN Security and its role in promoting peace, sustainable development and social cohesion. Besides a ‘nice time’ at the UN the Trump Administration is likely to propose measures to make the UN a more credible institution.
In conclusion, Trump means bringing a new world order based on parity and national interests. Mr Trump could have a lot of good ideas but his foreign policy will not be out of the line. He is likely going to fulfill most of his campaign promises on domestic and foreign policy but not the radical ones. There is not going to be a bed of roses ahead as this is the most controversial president in United States history. There are going to be winners and losers during his tenure. Time will tell.
Zimbabwe Institute of Diplomacy
20 January 2017